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Cyprus Internet Directory [ Tassos is the bookmakers favourite to win election ]

Tassos is the bookmakers favourite to win election

PRESIDENT Tassos Papadopoulos is the favourite to win this month’s presidential elections, if bookmakers’ odds are to be relied on.

Second favourite, with 2/1 odds, is AKEL leader Demetris Christofias, followed by DISY candidate Ioannis Kasoulides with 7/2 odds.

“The odds for Tassos Papadopoulos winning is ‘evens’ (1/1),” Michael Rodd of said.

The online betting exchange’s communication officer explained that in percentages this meant people thought Papadopoulos had a 50 per cent chance of winning.

Christofias’ odds give him 32 per cent chance of securing victory, with Kasoulides bringing up the rear at 23 per cent, give or take one per cent for all three, he explained.

Gamblers have four options to place bets on ‘The 2008 Presidential Elections’ market. These include a win for one of the three main presidential contenders or ‘any other’. The latter has odds of 149/1, with no bets placed so far, he added.

Rodd said the total money that had been bet on the market yesterday morning was €8,085. By early afternoon this had jumped up €2,695 to €10,780.

“Considering only €8,000 had been bet before we spoke that is a big jump in just an hour and suggests that there will be more interest in the market over the next few days,” he told the Cyprus Mail.

Considering Cyprus was a small market, it was highly likely more bets would start being placed closer to Sunday making the odds move again.

“Whichever candidate is deemed the favourite to win will affect how the odds move. It’s basically down to what people think… It is expected to go up substantially as we get closer to Sunday,” he explained.

The Betfair official said in the UK and US where bets ran into the millions, the predictions were “historically frighteningly accurate because people are betting minute by minute”.

“Whether this happens in Cyprus depends on the kind of people betting, how many place bets, the information they have before they place bets,” Rodd said.

He said often people betting were ahead of the game as they had a keen interest in the subject matter.

“Political markets are different to sports markets because the people betting have an interest in the subject such as academics, journalists, people who work at it in their day jobs. It’s different to sports betting such as horse racing or dog racing, which is more of a gamble. Here there’s a science to it, there’s more of an analytical thing to it. It’s people who know what they’re talking about, hence why they’re good at predicting the outcome,” he said.

“Again whether this is true of the Cyprus market I can’t say because I haven’t looked at the Cyprus market, but it is true of general politics markets,” he added.

Rodd said since the market had opened two-thirds of the total money had been bet on a Papadopoulos win.

“Papadopoulos has been the favourite to win the whole time,” he said.

The odds for Christofias and Kasoulides had also remained at or around the prices they were at now, he said.

Rodd said the market would stay open until there was an official winner.

“The market will move right up until you can’t bet anymore because there is a certain winner,” he said.

With over one million registered users from more than 140 different countries and 2007 revenue of £181.9 million, Betfair is the world’s leading betting exchange taking more than 15 million bets a day. It has 15 times more daily transactions than the London Stock Exchange and more than all of Europe’s stock exchanges combined.

According to reports local online betting agencies have also started taking bets on this Sundays and next Sundays elections.

(Source: Cyprus Mail)

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